Right On The Right

This is an incredibly confusing political cycle, with many saying that Republicans in general (including John McCain) are bound for an epic failure that will dwarf 2006 and turn the country over to the socialist swine. Others are a bit more optimistic, saying the socialist swine will only take the House and Senate while the Grand Old Party will still have control of the most important desk in the world. My opinion on the matter tends to put me in the second camp, but there's plenty of folks in the first camp. AOL is reporting that many historians are doubting Maverick's chances come November:

Historians belonging to both parties offered a litany of historical comparisons that give little hope to the Republican. Several saw Barack Obama’s prospects as the most promising for a Democrat since Roosevelt trounced Hoover in 1932.

“This should be an overwhelming Democratic victory,” said Allan Lichtman, an American University presidential historian who ran in a Maryland Democratic senatorial primary in 2006. Lichtman, whose forecasting model has correctly predicted the last six presidential popular vote winners, predicts that this year, “Republicans face what have always been insurmountable historical odds.” His system gives McCain a score on par with Jimmy Carter’s in 1980.

“McCain shouldn’t win it,” said presidential historian Joan Hoff, a professor at Montana State University and former president of the Center for the Study of the Presidency. She compared McCain’s prospects to those of Hubert Humphrey, whose 1968 loss to Richard Nixon resulted in large part from the unpopularity of sitting Democratic president Lyndon Johnson.

George W. Bush is no Lyndon B. Johnson, that's for sure. Also, the Reagan-Carter election cannot compare, because while McCain might not exactly emulate Reagan, I can't think of a politician in recent American history that emulates Jimmy Carter than Barack Obama. His floaty change rhetoric is just what the country needs, along with higher gas prices, caving to Iran (remember how that went last time?), and more inflation than a company specializing in party balloons. I believe McCain can win, and apparently so does the country. Via, once again, AOL News, here's some unscientific polling info:

Excuse me for a moment while I bask in the greatness that is American public opinion. Sure, polling is all over the place right now, but there's one thing we're not in for come November, and that's a landslide, at least not against McCain. Maybe after people learn about Obama's real record and some more of his kook associations come to light, historians will be talking about the historic inevitability of Barack's impending failure.

My last poll update had this race stuck in a statistical tie, and in my last ROTR polling average, it has stayed that way. The RCP Average is within less than a point, and my new weighted average (weights Mitchell, Rasmussen, Mason-Dixon, InsideAdvantage, and Strategic Vision, in that order), has it within 2 points. One says McCain +0.6 and the other says Romney +1.2. With those results, it would be irresponsible for me to give a prediction about tonight's primaries. I'll be covering Florida late tonight, most likely with coverage beginning at 8 PM. It's all up to Florida now.

My last average had Romney +3, and up until last night, it appeared Romney was surging. Unfortunately, that trend has apparently reversed and McCain and Romney are within a point. Perhaps it was the Crist endorsement. Either way, this thing is now a statistical tie according to my analysis. How? My trademark poll, Rasmussen, says the following:

Polling on Sunday showed that McCain picked up four percentage points from the day before. Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani lost two points each and Mike Huckabee also slipped a point. As a result, it’s all tied heading into the final full day of campaigning before Florida’s Republican Presidential Primary.

I also look at Mason-Dixon, Insider Advantage, and Strategic Vision closely. Strategic Vision has McCain up, Mason-Dixon has Romney up, and Insider Advantage has it tied, although their poll of "Registered Republicans" includes a small percentage of self-identified Democrats and Republicans, so we don't know how much Romney may lead (historically a point or two better) amongst actual Republicans. The point is, we're looking at a tie going into the last day. I'll post my final average tomorrow.

The hope for the Romney camp now is that blogs such as Michelle Malkin will continue slamming John McCain, and that Talk Radio will get the job done. We'll see what happens.

According to the RealClearPolitics Average, John McCain holds a statistically insignificant 0.1% lead in Florida over Governor Romney. The problem is, those results aren't exactly accurate. The problem is with the new Insider Advantage poll that shows Mitt and McCain tied. The problem, as explained by Race42008 is the following:

It’s important to note that Insider Advantage, for some inexplicable reason, includes Democrats and independents in their Florida polls. Quite alot of them in fact; in this poll nearly 1/3 of respondents are Democrats or independents. Given that Florida’s deadline to change your registration to Republican was December 31st, these voters are utterly irrelevant.

Why is Insider Advantage including Democrats and Independents in their poll? I have no clue. When you remove the Democrats and Independents, you have a completely different poll:

Mitt Romney: 30%
John McCain: 23%
Rudy Giuliani: 19%
Mike Huckabee: 12%
Ron Paul: 7%

Factor these numbers into the RCP average, and Mitt Romney takes about a 2 point lead over Senator McCain in Florida. I'm batting 1.000 when it comes to my polling averages and the results from the states, so we'll see what happens with this one. Governor Romney, leading in Florida.