According to the RealClearPolitics Average, John McCain holds a statistically insignificant 0.1% lead in Florida over Governor Romney. The problem is, those results aren't exactly accurate. The problem is with the new Insider Advantage poll that shows Mitt and McCain tied. The problem, as explained by Race42008 is the following:

It’s important to note that Insider Advantage, for some inexplicable reason, includes Democrats and independents in their Florida polls. Quite alot of them in fact; in this poll nearly 1/3 of respondents are Democrats or independents. Given that Florida’s deadline to change your registration to Republican was December 31st, these voters are utterly irrelevant.

Why is Insider Advantage including Democrats and Independents in their poll? I have no clue. When you remove the Democrats and Independents, you have a completely different poll:

Mitt Romney: 30%
John McCain: 23%
Rudy Giuliani: 19%
Mike Huckabee: 12%
Ron Paul: 7%

Factor these numbers into the RCP average, and Mitt Romney takes about a 2 point lead over Senator McCain in Florida. I'm batting 1.000 when it comes to my polling averages and the results from the states, so we'll see what happens with this one. Governor Romney, leading in Florida.