Right On The Right

Update: Given Mitt Romney's disappointing second place finish in New Hampshire, I feel like this is the most important thing for you to read. No scathing rebuttal to the idiots of New Hampshire, just this:

The conventional wisdom is that a second-place finish in New Hampshire for Mitt Romney, even by a slim margin, spells the end of the Romney campaign and he's going to be so far behind McCain and Huckabee that he'll almost have to concede. My question is, why would the man with the most delegates exit the race? You heard me right. There's essentially no result tomorrow that wouldn't result in Mitt Romney having the lead in delegates, unless somehow all of Mitt's supporters would be wiped out in some cataclysmic explosion and Huckabee's supporters from Iowa would show up in their stead. Mitt Romney is at worst, going to walk out of New Hampshire with a sizable lead, two silvers and a gold, and with a good chance of winning or placing in Michigan. At best, he is almost surely the favorite for the nomination. Where's the panic?

I decided to discuss this with some Conservative analyst friends of mine, and they made it an issue of expectations and money. Because Romney has spent millions of dollars on the ground in Iowa and New Hampshire, he was expected to win them both. Romney also spent millions on name recognition, but I don't see any ridiculous expectations about everyone knowing that his first name is really Willard. Yes, Romney spent a lot of money, but so did McCain, who had to accept federal matching funds to keep his campaign alive. That means his spending is capped by the way, which would make it very difficult for him to face off against Rudy or Huckabee in later states. Romney spent a lot, but to quote him when asked by Chris Wallace about how much of his personal fortune he has spent: "More than I would've liked, but less than I'm willing to." Even more impressive than his own ability to chip in the dough, is his fundraising machine, which has produced more cash-on-hand than any other Republican except perhaps Dr. Paul.

Think about the circumstances surrounding both the Hawkeye Cauci and the New Hampshire primary. In Iowa, an influx of evangelicals duped by Governor Huckabee made it impossible for Mitt to win, but that influx is apparently subsiding nationally, and New Hampshire voters were smart enough to see through it. McCain has a perfect storm in New Hampshire (but no where else), because he has a large voter base from 2000 and plenty of independents to join his camp. The media is ignoring the fact that amongst actual Republicans, Romney is beating McCain. Aren't we trying to select the Republican nominee? Romney has the opportunity to come out of New Hampshire with a solid lead, and enough money and support to compete in Michigan, South Carolina, and Florida. He could get a couple more silvers and another gold in those contests, and be the clear favorite on Super Tuesday. This isn't an expectations game, it's a delegate game, and Mitt's winning big.

Mitt Romney isn't dead if he loses tomorrow in New Hampshire, though I expect a surprise is brewing from Romney's debate performances that'll make things closer than the pundits expect. Mitt can compete in Michigan, go into South Carolina and confront both McCain and the Huckaboom once again, and he has the organization to rival Rudy Giuliani in Florida. Don't hand a man with millions on hand his walking papers just yet...